Tanzania Exports Grow 19.9% to USD 21.1 Billion in Year Ending September 2026, Led by Gold and Tourism

The Bank of Tanzania (BOT) released its Monthly Economic Review for October 2026, covering key macroeconomic indicators for the year ending September 2026, showing an economy expanding on strong credit and export growth while absorbing imported fuel-price pressure.

Headline inflation held steady at 4.3% in September 2026, within the national target of 3% to 5%.

Exports of goods and services grew 19.9% to USD 21,065.1 million, led by gold and travel receipts.

Credit to the private sector expanded 34.2% and foreign exchange reserves reached USD 6,031.9 million, covering 4.3 months of imports, while the Central Bank Rate (CBR) was kept at 6.25% and the Shilling depreciated 7.4% year-on-year.

Inflation

Headline annual inflation held steady at 4.3% in September 2026, unchanged from August 2026 and up from 3.4% in September 2025, as moderating energy, fuel and utilities prices offset a slight rise in food inflation. It remained within the national target and the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) benchmarks.

Core inflation, which excludes unprocessed food and energy, was unchanged at 4.1% in September 2026, up from 2.2% a year earlier, and contributed 3.1 percentage points to headline inflation, from 1.6 percentage points in September 2025.

Food inflation increased to 3.9% from 3.7% in August 2026, below 7% in September 2025, on higher sorghum, potato, finger millet and wheat prices. Energy, fuel and utilities inflation eased to 7.8% from 8.5% the previous month, though above the 3.7% recorded in September 2025, while transport inflation reached 14.0% on an annual basis.

National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) stocks stood at 478,160.2 tonnes, after purchases of 705.7 tonnes and releases of 6,877.1 tonnes of maize and paddy to traders. Inflation is projected to remain elevated on persistent Middle East tensions and anticipated El Niño-induced Vuli rains, though anchored within target by surplus food production from the 2025/26 harvest.

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates

The BOT kept the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 6.25% for Q4 2026, deemed appropriate in dampening emerging inflationary pressures and fostering economic growth.

Lending rates rose, with the overall rate at 15.54% in September 2026, from 15.05% in August 2026, and the negotiated rate for prime borrowers at 12.03% from 11.93%, while the overall deposit rate rose to 9.02% from 8.78% and the negotiated deposit rate was broadly stable at 11%.

Private sector credit expanded 34.2%, reflecting rising demand for business financing, with transport and communication recording the strongest sectoral growth at 78.3%, followed by trade at 52.5% and agriculture at 41.9%. Personal loans, largely financing micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), accounted for the largest share of outstanding credit at 33.9%, followed by trade at 15.6% and agriculture at 13.7%.

Financial Markets

Government Securities

The Bank conducted two Treasury bill auctions with a combined tender of TZS 678.3 billion, both oversubscribed with bids of TZS 1,205 billion, of which TZS 654.6 billion was successful, while the overall weighted average Treasury bill yield remained unchanged at 4.85%.

The 5-year, 10-year and 15-year Treasury bond auctions, with tenders of TZS 145.6 billion, TZS 182.9 billion and TZS 207.3 billion respectively, were all oversubscribed, attracting bids of TZS 1,267.2 billion, of which TZS 489.7 billion was accepted. Yields fell to 9.53% on the 5-year bond and 10.69% on the 10-year bond, while the 15-year yield rose to 10.79%.

Interbank Cash Market

Interbank cash market turnover increased to TZS 4,791.7 billion, from TZS 4,566.2 billion the previous month, with the 7-day tenor accounting for 62% of activity, while the overall interbank cash market rate was unchanged at 6.67%.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Market

Total turnover in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market reached USD 151.7 million, with the Bank selling USD 7.2 million to smooth exchange rate volatility. The Shilling traded at an average of TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026, from TZS 2,657.01 in August 2026, and depreciated 7.4% on an annual basis, largely reflecting a base effect from its sharp appreciation in September 2025.

Government Budgetary Operations

Revenue collection reached TZS 3,502.2 billion in July 2026, surpassing the target by 9.5%, with central government revenue of TZS 3,354.9 billion accounting for 95.8% of total collections.

Tax revenue reached TZS 2,877.0 billion, 9.8% above target, on sustained improvements in tax administration and compliance, while non-tax revenue was TZS 477.9 billion, marginally below the target of TZS 480.2 billion.

Total expenditure stood at TZS 3,572.5 billion, comprising TZS 2,779.6 billion in recurrent spending and TZS 792.9 billion in development spending.

Debt Developments

The national debt stock increased marginally to USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026, from USD 52,341.1 million the previous month, with external debt accounting for 70.3%.

External Debt

External debt stock held by the public and private sectors stood at USD 36,784.2 million, of which 83.4% was public. External loan disbursements totalled USD 234.3 million, largely to the central government, while external debt service payments were USD 171.9 million, including USD 122 million in principal repayments.

Multilateral institutions remained the largest creditor category at 59.5%, followed by commercial lenders at 34.5%, while the US Dollar dominated the currency composition at 65.3%, followed by the Euro at 18.1%.

Domestic Debt

Domestic debt rose to TZS 41,113.5 billion at end-September 2026, while the Government raised TZS 356 billion through securities, comprising TZS 178 billion in Treasury bonds and TZS 178 billion in Treasury bills. Domestic debt servicing totalled TZS 556.4 billion, including TZS 250.8 billion in principal and TZS 305.6 billion in interest.

External Sector Performance

Current Account

The current account deficit widened 27.6% to USD 2,397.5 million in the year ending September 2026, from USD 1,879.3 million a year earlier, as import growth outpaced export gains.

Exports

Total exports of goods and services grew 19.9% to USD 21,065.1 million, from USD 17,568.9 million, led by gold and travel receipts, with goods exports rising 23.7% to USD 12,444.9 million, from USD 10,060.1 million.

Gold exports increased 31.7% to USD 5,834.5 million, from USD 4,431.2 million, on favourable global prices and domestic production, and manufactured goods exports grew 42.4% to USD 2,202.4 million, from USD 1,546.2 million, driven by iron, steel and glassware.

Traditional exports grew, led by tobacco, while coffee and cashew nut exports declined.

On a monthly basis, goods exports increased 48.5% to USD 1,504.1 million in September 2026, from USD 1,013.1 million a year earlier.

Service receipts grew 14.8% to USD 8,620.2 million, from USD 7,508.8 million, as tourism receipts rose 4.1% to USD 4,565.8 million, from USD 4,387.6 million, and transport receipts increased 30.3% to USD 3,478.7 million, from USD 2,669.9 million, on higher freight earnings from transit trade.

On a monthly basis, service receipts rose 44.6% to USD 1,017.5 million in September 2026, from USD 703.7 million a year earlier.

Imports

Imports of goods and services increased 24.0% to USD 22,134.2 million, from USD 17,848.9 million, led by industrial supplies, petroleum products, freight services and industrial transport equipment. Petroleum products, about 20% of goods imports, surged 72.3% to USD 3,813.6 million on elevated global prices amid Middle East tensions, while monthly goods imports rose 14.9% to USD 1,822.6 million in September 2026, from USD 1,586.9 million a year earlier.

Service payments increased 8.0% to USD 3,448.1 million, driven by higher freight payments. The primary income deficit widened 0.8% to USD 2,089.8 million, from USD 2,073.6 million, while the secondary income surplus increased 60.4% to USD 761.4 million, from USD 474.6 million, on higher personal transfers.

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 6,031.9 million at end-September 2026, supported by sustained export earnings and the Bank’s gold purchase programme, and were sufficient to cover 4.3 months of projected imports, above the national adequacy benchmark.