Fitch Revises Tanzania Outlook to Positive, Affirms ‘B+’ Rating, Forecasts GDP Growth of 5.8% in 2026 Driven by Tourism and Mining

Fitch Ratings has revised Tanzania’s long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings (IDR) outlook to positive from stable while affirming the country’s rating at ‘B+’.

According to the rating company, the positive outlook reflects expectations of strengthening international reserves, moderate fiscal deficits, and continued economic growth, which together would support a gradual decline in government debt.

Fitch forecasts Tanzania’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.8% in 2026 and an average of 6.1% in 2027 to 2028.

The agency attributed the growth outlook to public investment, tourism, the country’s role as a regional logistics hub, and expansion in the mining sector.

Fitch also noted improvements in Tanzania’s macroeconomic policy framework since 2023, including measures to strengthen central bank independence, exchange-rate flexibility and foreign-exchange management.

The agency warned, however, that Tanzania’s credit rating remains constrained by weak governance and low government revenue compared with B-rated peers.

It added that the macroeconomic policy framework, despite recent improvements, still needs to demonstrate greater resilience to external shocks.

Fitch Ratings has maintained Tanzania’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B+’ through several consecutive reviews, most recently reaffirming the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR at ‘B+’ with a stable outlook on 13 June 2025.

The agency has repeatedly flagged the same structural constraints, including liquidity management issues, foreign-exchange market distortions and persistent dollarisation, despite IMF-supported reforms such as a shift to interest-rate targeting and foreign-exchange policy changes.