The Bank of Tanzania (BOT) released its Monthly Economic Review-November 2022 which covers key macroeconomic indicators for the year ending October 2022.
Inflation continued to increase in most of Tanzania’s trading partners and around the world, driven by sustained food shortages and higher input costs due to spiking energy prices.
Due to this hostile external environment and domestic supply-side constraints, inflation continued to trend upward, reaching 4.9% in October 2022, from 4.8% and 4% in the preceding month and the corresponding period in 2021, respectively.
The gradual inflation increase left the rate consistent with the country’s target of 5.4% for 2022/23 and 3-7% in the medium term.
The rate was also in line with East African Community and Southern (EAC) African Development Community (SADC) convergence criteria.
Money supply remained on a rising trend in line with the ongoing implementation of monetary policies that are geared towards balancing between taming inflationary pressures while stimulating recovery of economic activities.
Specifically, extended broad money supply (M3) grew by 13.3%, slightly lower than the 13.6% recorded in October 2021. The growth of M3 is generally consistent with the target of 10.3% for 2022/23.
Growth of credit extended by the banking system to the private sector and the central government remained high on account of sustained high growth of credit to the private sector.
Annual growth of 34.2% was recorded in October 2022, higher than 9 percent in the corresponding period in 2021. Private sector credit recorded a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, compared with 5.6% in October 2021 and the target of 10.7% for 2022/23.
Credit to agriculture maintained the highest growth rate, partly responding to monetary policy measures implemented to support cost-effective credit intermediation to agriculture and agribusiness activities.
Interest rates charged on loans by banks remained broadly unchanged, with the overall lending rate averaging 16.07% in October 2022, the same as in the preceding month, but lower than 16.65% in the corresponding month in 2021.
However, the rate charged on loans extended to prime customers averaged 14.33%, up from 13.92% and 13.65%.
Interest rates offered on deposits decreased slightly, with the overall deposit rate averaging 7.32%, compared with 7.62% recorded in September 2022 and 6.29% in October 2021.
The deposit rate offered to prime customers, herein referred to as the negotiated deposit rate, slightly eased to 9.52% from 9.67% and 9.71% in the preceding month and the corresponding period in 2021, respectively.
The primary market for government securities showed mixed performance, with investors’ preference skewed towards instruments with longer maturities.
Two Treasury bills auctions were conducted in October 2022, with a combined tender size of TZS 315.6 billion for government budgetary operations and liquidity management.
Total bids received amounted to TZS 200.5 billion, out of which TZS 175.5 billion were successful. Consistent with the outturn, the weighted average yield increased to an average of 4.95% from 4.64% in the preceding month.
Domestic revenue collection has remained resilient despite external economic shocks and was broadly in line with the October 2022 target, amounting to TZS 2,048.0 billion.
Out of the total collections, central government revenue—comprising of tax and non-tax—was TZS 1,961.4 billion, equivalent to 91.1% of the target for the month and 8.5% higher than collections during the similar month in 2021.
Tax revenue was TZS 1,623.9 billion, equivalent to 91.2% of the target and 3.9% higher than what was collected during the similar month in the previous year. This outcome was largely owing to close follow-up of taxpayers and leveraging technology in tax collection, including VAT e-filing.
Meanwhile, revenue collections by local governments reached TZS 86.6 billion against a target of TZS 85.9 billion. External loans and grants worth TZS 60.8 billion and TZS 10.1 billion, respectively were received by the Government during the month under review.
The Government spent a total of TZS 2,581.3 billion in October 2022, of which TZS 1,468 billion was recurrent expenditure and TZS 1,113.3 billion wasdevelopment expenditure.
Of the total development expenditure, the locally financed component accounted for 93.6%.
National and External Debt
The national debt stock, comprising public (external and domestic) debt and private sector external debt, was USD 39,006.1 million at the end of October 2022, a monthly increase of USD 544.8 million. Of the stock, 70.5% was external debt.
Stock of external debt, comprising public and private sector, recorded a monthly increase of USD 140.8 million to USD 27,482.2 million at end of October 2022.
This outturn was attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies in which the debt is denominated.
Disbursements amounted to USD 53.6 million, of which USD 53.5 million was in favor of the central government.
Debt service totaled USD 149.4 million, with principal repayment amounting to USD
121 million and the balance was interest payments. The central government remained the main beneficiary of external debt.
Multilateral institutions sustained dominance in the creditor category, accounting for 45.7% of the external debt stock, followed by commercial creditors.
Transport and telecommunication economic activities continued to account for the largest share of disbursed outstanding debt, followed by social welfare and education, and energy and mining activities.
The composition of external debt by currency was dominated by the US Dollar (68.9%), followed by the Euro.
Imports of goods and services were valued at USD 16,196 million in the year ending October 2022 compared with USD 10,763.9 million in the year ending October 2021.
The increase largely stems from the rise in import bills of refined white petroleum products, machinery, iron and steel and plastic items, consistent with the growth of economic activities.
Prices of most commodities recorded a rise, largely on account of supply chain disruptions associated with the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Imports of refined white petroleum products which accounted for about 23% of the total import bill, grew by 90.8% to USD 3,228.7 million, on account of both volume and price effects.
Exports of goods and services amounted to USD 11,831.2 million during the year to October 2022, up from USD 9,608.9 million in the similar period in 2021, largely driven by non-traditional goods and services receipts that accounted for 51.4% and 39% of total exports, respectively.
The growth in non-traditional goods exports was largely on account of improved export performance of textiles, iron and steel, diamond, fish products and fertilizers.
Exports of diamonds increased significantly to USD 58.6 million from USD 3.8 million recorded in the corresponding period in 2021, explained by the resumption of production at Williamson Mines following a care and maintenance period.
Meanwhile, gold exports, which accounted for 39% of goods exports slightly fell to USD 2,817.7 million, from USD 2,842.3 million in the previous year associated with a decrease in world market prices.
Traditional goods worth USD 742.7 million were exported during the year to October 2022, higher than USD 672.7 million in the corresponding period in 2021.
This performance was supported by the increase in exports of cashew nuts, tobacco, cotton and sisal.
On monthly basis, traditional exports fell to USD 64.5 million in October 2022 from USD 71.3 million in October 2021, while non-traditional exports were USD 552 million, slightly higher than USD 519.5 million in October 2021.
Services receipts increased to USD 4,611.3 million in the year to October 2022, from USD 2,873.5 million in the corresponding period in 2021, boosted by higher travel and transport receipts.
Travel receipts almost doubled to USD 2,361.7 million from USD 1,189.1 million, consistent with the increase in the number of tourist arrivals by 59.6% to 1,381,648.
On a monthly basis, services receipts were USD 445.6 million, higher than USD 310.8 million in October 2021.