AfDB
The African Development Bank (AfDB) expects Tanzania to attain an average growth rate of 6% or higher in 2025-26[4], supported by continued public investments to deepen domestic value chains in agriculture and energy infrastructure.
The African Development Bank is one of Tanzania's principal multilateral development partners, financing infrastructure, transport corridors, and productive-sector projects across the country.
Its country-level outlook positions Tanzania as one of East Africa's strongest growth performers, with forecasts that align closely with those of the World Bank and the IMF.
AfDB Macroeconomic Outlook for Tanzania
The African Development Bank expects Tanzania's economy to expand at an average rate of 6% or higher across 2025-26[4].
This outlook is anchored on continued public investments aimed at deepening domestic value chains in agriculture and energy infrastructure[4].
The forecast is consistent with the World Bank's projection of 5.9% GDP growth in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027[3], both supported by extractives sector opportunities, business environment reforms, and an increasing reliance on public-private partnerships.
The IMF projects a comparable medium-term growth path of 6.5%[5], contingent on macro-financial stability, structural reforms, and climate resilience measures.
Together, these AfDB, World Bank, and IMF projections converge on a strong, investment-led expansion trajectory for the Tanzanian economy.
AfDB Strategic Priority Sectors in Tanzania
The AfDB outlook ties Tanzania's growth momentum to two strategic pillars: agriculture and energy infrastructure[4].
In agriculture, the focus is on deepening domestic value chains, moving the economy beyond raw production toward processing and integrated supply systems.
In energy, sustained public investment is identified as a critical enabler of industrialisation, regional competitiveness, and long-term productivity gains.
These priority areas align with Tanzania's broader positioning as the largest consumer market in East Africa, with a population estimated at 70 million and projected to double by 2050[6].
AfDB-Financed Infrastructure Projects
The African Development Bank is actively financing transport infrastructure in Tanzania, including the Dodoma City Outer Ring Road, a 110.2 km construction project under implementation[7].
The Dodoma Outer Ring Road is a flagship urban-mobility investment supporting the country's new capital, easing congestion, and unlocking peri-urban industrial and commercial land.
The Bank also publishes a Country Diagnostic Note for Tanzania, which informs its lending pipeline and country strategy[2].
These project-level engagements reinforce AfDB's role as a leading co-financier of Tanzania's transport, urban, and corridor infrastructure agenda.
AfDB Alignment with Tanzania's Growth Drivers
The AfDB outlook is anchored in Tanzania's emerging growth engines, including the country's role as co-host of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations and major investments in agriculture and mining[3].
Public-private partnerships are highlighted across the AfDB, World Bank, and IMF assessments as an increasingly important channel for mobilising investment.
The extractives sector, alongside agriculture and energy, features prominently in the multilateral consensus on Tanzania's medium-term outlook.
Demographic dynamics reinforce this outlook: Tanzania's population grew from 44.9 million in 2012 to 61.7 million in 2022[1], an annual growth rate of approximately 2.9%, with a median age of 17.5 years driving consumption demand.
Investment Opportunities Linked to AfDB Priorities
Agricultural value chains represent a primary investment frontier identified in the AfDB outlook[4], with scope for processing, logistics, cold chain, and input supply across maize, cashews, coffee, cotton, sisal, sugar, sunflower, avocados, and horticulture.
Energy infrastructure offers a parallel opportunity set, ranging from generation and transmission to distribution, off-grid solutions, and energy services tied to industrialisation.
Transport and urban infrastructure, exemplified by the Dodoma Outer Ring Road[7], opens opportunities in road construction, engineering services, materials supply, and adjacent real-estate development.
Extractives and mining-linked services are flagged across the multilateral outlook as a key growth driver[3], supporting opportunities in processing, equipment supply, and downstream value addition.
Finally, the convergence of AfDB, World Bank, and IMF growth forecasts at 6% or above provides a robust macroeconomic backdrop for long-horizon investors targeting consumer-facing sectors in East Africa's largest consumer market.
Last Update: May 2026
References
- https://www.nbs.go.tz/uploads/statistics/documents/sw-1738321655-01.%20URT_Demographic%20and%20Socioeconomic%20Profile.pdf (Guide reference #8)
- https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/documents/project-related-procurement/tanzania_cdn_2025.pdf (Guide reference #20)
- https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bae48ff2fefc5a869546775b3f010735-0500062021/related/mpo-tza.pdf (Guide reference #21)
- https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/african-economic-outlook-2025 (Guide reference #22)
- https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/27/pr25225-tanzania-imf-concl-2025-aiv-consultation-comp-5th-rev-ecf-arr-2nd-rev-rsf-arrangement (Guide reference #23)
- https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099031124044543127/pdf/P179610-f356d1aa-6f81-41fa-b472-5b969e1205b2.pdf (Guide reference #24)
- https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/documents/projects-and-operations/tanzania_-_dodoma_city_outer_ring_road_110.2_km_construction_project_-_ipr_december_2025.pdf (Guide reference #189)
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