Tanzania Economic Review – November 2022: Coal and Sisal Exports Increased Significantly, Tourist Arrivals Doubled

TANZANIA ECONOMIC UPDATE NOVEMBER 2022

The Bank of Tanzania (BOT) released its Monthly Economic Review-December 2022 which covers key macroeconomic indicators for the year ending November 2022.

Inflation

As in many countries, global supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and a resurgence of COVID-19 in some countries have had an impact on consumer goods in Tanzania.

As a result, overall (headline) inflation sustained an upward trend for eight months, before stabilizing at 4.9% in October and November 2022.

Despite the increase, it remained consistent with the country’s target of 5.4% for 2022-23 and 3-7% in the medium term.

The rate was also in line with the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) convergence criteria.

Inflation is expected to remain consistent with the targets in the remaining period of 2022/23, largely due to moderation in global supply shocks.

The price of oil, in particular, is projected to continue declining, despite the probable risk arising from the recent G7 price cap on Russian oil production cut by OPEC.

Tanzania Inflation and Targets November 2021-2022

Tanzania Inflation and Targets November 2021-2022

Money Supply & Credit

In November 2022, the Bank of Tanzania continued to implement a monetary policy geared towards balancing between taming inflationary pressures and supporting economic activities. This policy drive was implemented by lessening monetary policy accommodation.

As a result, money supply and private sector credit growth have been satisfactory. The extended broad money supply (M3) grew by 12.7%, in line with the target of 10.3% for 2022/23.

Tanzania Money Supply November 2021-2022

Tanzania Money Supply November 2021-2022

Private sector credit growth was strong at 22.6% over a year-on-year basis, almost tripling from 7.8% registered in November 2021.

Tanzania Banks’ Credit to Private Sector November 2021-2022

Tanzania Banks Credit to Private Sector November 2021-2022

This reflects improving economic activity and the impact of monetary and fiscal policies executed to limit adverse spillover effects of global supply shocks.

Almost all the major economic activities recorded an increase in credit. Credit extended to agriculture continued to record the highest growth, partly due to monetary policy measures rolled out in July 2021 to support cost-effective credit intermediation to agriculture and agri-business activities.

Personal-related activities, trade, manufacturing, and agriculture activities remained the major holders of the outstanding loans extended to the private sector by banks.

Tanzania Share of Credit to Selected Economic Activities November 2021-2022 (in %)

Tanzania Share of Credit to Selected Economic Activities November 2021-2022

Interest Rates

In November 2022, interest rates charged by banks on loans remained almost unchanged from the preceding and corresponding month in 2021.

The overall lending rate was around 16%, while negotiated lending rates were around 14%.

Meanwhile, deposit rates increased, with the overall deposit interest rate averaging at 7.28%, compared with 6.80% in November 2021.

However, the rate was slightly lower than 7.32% which was recorded in the preceding month.

Negotiated deposits rate remained relatively the same, averaging 10% in November 2022.

Tanzania Lending and Deposit Interest Rates November 2021-2022 (in %)

Tanzania Interest Rates November 2021-2022

Government Securities

The performance of government securities auctions in the primary market recorded mixed results, with investors’ preferences remaining skewed towards instruments with longer maturities.

Two Treasury bills auctions were conducted in November 2022, with a combined tender size of TZS 354.9 billion for government budgetary operations and liquidity management.

The auctions attracted bids amounting to TZS 175.1 billion, out of which TZS 168.4 billion were successful. The weighted average yield increased to an average of 5.60% from 4.95% in the preceding month.

Tanzania Treasury Bills Market Performance November 2021-2022

Tanzania Treasury Bills Market Performance November 2021-2022

In November 2022, the Bank of Tanzania conducted three Treasury bond auctions with a maturity of 7, 15, and 20 years for government budgetary operations with a combined tender size of TZS 396.9 billion.

The 7 and 15-year Treasury bonds were undersubscribed while 20 year Treasury bond was oversubscribed.

Total bids received amounted to TZS 274.7 billion, of which TZS 274 billion were successful.

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Yields to maturity increased to 12.23% and 9.71% for 20 and 7-year Treasury bonds respectively while that of 15-year bonds decreased slightly to 11.20%.

Government Revenues & Expenditures

Domestic revenue collection was satisfactory despite being below the target for the month of November 2022. During the period, domestic revenue was TZS 1,986.2 billion, or 91.1% of the monthly target.

Out of the total collections, central government revenue comprising of tax and non-tax was TZS 1,906.5 billion, equivalent to 90.9% of the target for the month.

Tax revenue was TZS 1,646.4 billion, or 92.6% of the monthly target and 3.5% higher than collections recorded in November 2021.

Tanzania Central Government Revenues November 2021-2022

Expenditure amounted to TZS 2,512.9 billion, of which TZS 1,473.8 billion was recurrent expenditure and TZS 1,039 billion (41%) was for development expenditure.

The development expenditure was locally financed for 77% (TZS 800 billion), with the remainder being foreign-financed.

Tanzania Central Government Expenditure November 2021-2022

Tanzania Central Government Expenditure November 2021-2022.png

National and External Debt

The level of debt stock, comprising public debt (external and domestic) and private sector external debt was USD 39,548.5 million at the end of November 2022, representing a monthly increase of USD 403.4 million.

The increase was mainly on account of the depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies in which debt is denominated, as well as new disbursements, which outweighed repayments.

The stock of external debt accounted for 70.9% of the national debt stock.

External Debt

Stock of external debt, comprising the public and private sector, increased by USD 399.4 million to USD 28,020.5 million at the end of November 2022 from the levels recorded at the end of the preceding month.

Debt service was USD 209 million, of which USD 136.1 million was principal repayment and the balance was interest payments.

A large proportion of the external debt stock was owed to multilateral institutions, accounting for 45.9% of the stock, followed by commercial creditors.

Transport and telecommunication economic activities continued to account for the largest share of the disbursed outstanding debt (DOD), followed by social welfare and education, and energy and mining activities.

The external debt was mainly dominated by the US Dollar (68.7%), followed by the Euro.

Domestic Debt

At the end of November 2022, the stock of domestic debt was TZS 26,612.6 billion, an increase of TZS 12.4 billion from the amount recorded at the end of October 2022.

The increase was due to the new issuance of government securities.

The composition of domestic debt was similar to previous months, with Treasury bonds and stocks accounting for 77.5% of the debt stock, implying sustained investors’ preference for securities with longer maturities.

Pension funds and commercial banks remained the dominant creditors, jointly holding 56% of total domestic debt.

Government securities worth TZS 405.5 billion were issued in November 2022, of which TZS 328.3 billion were Treasury bonds and the balance was Treasury bills.

Domestic debt service payments amounted to TZS 534.6 billion, of which TZS 322.7 billion was principal repayments and the balance was interest payments.

External Sector Performance

The external sector of the economy continued to endure challenges of commodity prices, tight financial conditions, high inflation among trading partners, and supply-chain disruptions caused by a resurgence of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine.

The current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 5,116.1 million in the year ending November 2022, wider than a deficit of USD 2,185 million in the previous year, due to a high import bill.

Meanwhile, the overall balance of payments was a deficit of USD 1,940.4 million, compared to a surplus of USD 1,953.4 million in the previous year, driven by higher payments abroad.

The stock of foreign reserves amounted to USD 4,541.1 million at the end of November 2022, compared with USD 6,557.9 million in the similar period in 2021.

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The reserves remained adequate, covering about 4.11 months of imports, in line with the country benchmark of not less than 4 months.

Imports

Imports of goods and services amounted to USD 16,454.4 million in the year ending November 2022 compared with USD 11,209 million in the year ending November 2021.

Imports of white petroleum products contributed largely to the rise, having increased by 81.5% to USD 3,279 million, driven by both volume and price effects.

Imports of machinery, industrial transport equipment, iron and steel, and plastic items also increased, consistent with the revamping of economic activities.

The value of most imports recorded a rise, save for edible oil, largely on account of a significant decline in import volumes owing to supply chain disruptions associated with the ongoing war in Ukraine, which lead to an increase in prices.

Services payments also increased to USD 2,385.3 million from USD 1,551.4 million in the year to November 2021, explained by higher freight payments consistent with the rise in the import bill.

On monthly basis, services payments amounted to USD 232.3 million, up from USD 167.5 million in November 2021.

Exports

Exports of goods and services increased to USD 11,940 million during the year to November 2022, from USD 9,733 million in the year to November 2021. The increase was largely driven by nontraditional goods exports and services receipts.

Exports of goods increased by 7.5% to USD 7,241.4 million, with non-traditional exports rising by 5.7%, emanating from exports of coal, diamonds, iron and steel, textiles, fish products, and fertilizers.

Tanzania Exports of Goods November 2020-2021-2022 (in Millions USD)

Tanzania Exports of Goods November 2020-2021-2022 (in Millions USD)

Coal worth USD 141.6 million was exported in the year ending November 2022, higher than USD 13.2 million in the corresponding period in 2021, largely explained by the rising demand for alternative sources of energy following the short supply of crude oil and natural gas amid the war in Ukraine.

Most of the coal was destined to neighboring countries including Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Uganda; and other countries including Poland, Hong Kong, India, and Senegal.

Good performance was also recorded in exports of diamonds, which increased to USD 63.1 million from USD 8.4 million in the year to November 2021.

The increase was explained by the resumption of production at Williamson Mines following a period of closure for maintenance.

Gold exports, which accounted for 46.5% of goods exports, also recorded a slight increase to USD 2,826.3 million from USD 2,816.5 million on account of a volume effect.

Regarding traditional goods, exports increased to USD 760.9 million from USD 628.8 million, supported by the rise in exports of cotton, cashew nuts, sisal, and tobacco.

While the increase in value of cashew nuts and tobacco was owing to a volume effect, that of cotton was due to a rise in price in the global market.

As for sisal, the increase was on account of both volume and price effects.

On monthly basis, traditional exports rose to USD 126.5 million from USD 108.2 million in November 2021, while non-traditional exports were USD 488.4 million, broadly unchanged from USD 486.3 million in November 2021.

Services receipts amounted to USD 4,698.6 million in the year to November 2022, higher than USD 2,997.2 million in 2021, explained by higher travel and transport receipts.

Tanzania Services Receipts November 2020-2021-2022 (in Millions USD)

Tanzania Services Receipts November 2020-2021-2022 (in Millions USD)

Travel receipts almost doubled to USD 2,446.8 million from USD 1,250.7 million, consistent with the rise in the number of tourist arrivals by 53.4% to 1,412,060.

On monthly basis, services receipts were USD 414.6 million, higher than USD 327.4 million in November 2021.

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